Tahoe City, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

128
FXUS65 KREV 052049
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
149 PM PDT Mon May 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A warming and drying trend persists through Saturday.

* Near record temperatures will be possible in western Nevada by
  Friday and Saturday along with increased minor heat risk concerns
  and renewed snowmelt runoff.

* Thunderstorms and showers will be on pause until a 10-15% chance
  resumes Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* For Tuesday, a weak shortwave that`s dropping south on the
  backside of the exiting trough will move through the area. Not
  expecting any precipitation with this feature, but we could see
  some increased cloud cover for areas east of Highway 95.
  Temperatures tomorrow will reach back to average for the first
  week of May, with calmer winds than today.

* High pressure will continue to build across the area through the
  week, allowing for temperatures to trend upwards of 10 to 15
  degrees above average. The warmest days of the week will be from
  Thursday through Saturday. Afternoon readings during this time
  will be in the mid to upper 80s across western NV, northeast CA,
  and lower elevations in Mono County. We can`t rule out a few 90
  degree readings in the inner basins. Meanwhile, temperatures for
  eastern Sierra communities will range from the upper 60s to
  upper 70s. At the moment, Reno International Airport has a 50%
  chance of breaking the record of 88 degrees on Saturday.

* With the warmer temperatures, local rivers and streams will be
  running fast and very cold. Current water temperatures
  throughout the area are in the low to mid 40s. Since these
  temperatures are the warmest we`ve seen all spring, minor
  heatrisk issues may occur by Friday and Saturday.

* As is common this time of year, heating of the day will allow
  for minor instability across the Sierra. We`ll have a 10-15%
  chance for thunderstorms each afternoon from Thursday through
  Saturday, mainly south of US-50. Gusty winds, small hail, and
  lightning will be the primary threats.

* For the start of next week, ensemble analysis is pointing to
  another Pacific trough moving into the western US. There is
  still timing issues among the ensembles, but overall
  temperatures trend lower Sunday into Tuesday with increasing
  southwest winds. We`ll introduce low 15% chances for
  precipitation, but at the moment with lower confidence.
  -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

* Residual clouds from the system yesterday are rapidly clearing,
  but continue to hug the terrain in Mono/Mineral Counties. These
  locations could still see some areas with terrain obscuration
  through this evening.

* NE flow over the region today, with FL100 winds around 20-30 kts,
  weakening into Tuesday. Mountain wave turbulence on the downwind
  side of the Sierra (i.e. west) is possible through Tuesday
  morning. Terminal sites will see NE winds peaking 10-20 kts
  through this afternoon, becoming light overnight.

* Westerly flow returns by midweek with rapidly warming
  temperatures and some possible density altitude concerns given
  lower elevation terminals, such as KRNO/KCXP/KMEV, approach the
  90 degree mark Friday and Saturday afternoon. -Dawn


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$